Is it a gamble? A quantity surveyor's approach to Monte Carlo simulations

Summary

*Please note: this event is for over 18’s only

Cost certainty is one of the most valuable things a quantity surveyor can offer a client — and one of the hardest to deliver honestly. Construction projects rarely go exactly to plan, and most project budgets are still built on single-point estimates and rule-of-thumb contingencies that offer little insight into the true range of possible outcomes. Yet clients, funders, and decision-makers are increasingly demanding more rigorous, defensible answers to the question: what could this project actually cost? Monte Carlo simulation provides exactly that. Far from being a gamble, it is a structured, evidence-based method for quantifying uncertainty — and in this webinar, we show you how quantity surveyors are putting it to work on real projects in the New Zealand construction markets.

Join us for a practical, jargon-free walkthrough of Monte Carlo cost risk modelling — from defining cost distributions and modelling correlations between risk events, to interpreting the P50, P80, and P90 confidence levels that increasingly feature in infrastructure and development funding decisions. Through worked examples relevant to projects you are already delivering, we demonstrate how to move from a standard QS cost plan to a fully probabilistic risk model, and how to present results that inform — rather than overwhelm — your client. Whether you are advising on a residential subdivision or a major public works programme, you will leave with practical tools, a professional framework, and the confidence to position probabilistic cost advice as a premium, market-differentiating service in your practice.

Speaker:

Javier Paredes - Quantity Surveyor, Higgins Contractors Ltd

• Javier is a Quantity Surveyor who graduated from WelTec and completed the Fletcher Construction Graduate Programme, gaining experience across multiple business units. He currently works with Higgins Contractors Ltd in the new business development and commercial team, focusing on cost planning, risk analysis, and commercial strategy for civil and infrastructure projects.

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Contact

Jessie Purtell

Member Services and Events Co-ordinator - Oceania

[email protected]

+61 428 345 945